QUESTION
ANSWER
Case Analysis
| Activity | Optimistic (to) |
Most probable (tm) |
Pessimistic (tp) |
Expected time= (to+4tm+tp)/6 |
| A |
4 |
6 |
8 |
6 |
| B |
6 |
8 |
16 |
9 |
| C |
2 |
4 |
6 |
4 |
| D |
8 |
10 |
24 |
12 |
| E |
7 |
10 |
13 |
10 |
| F |
4 |
6 |
8 |
6 |
| G |
4 |
6 |
20 |
8 |
| H |
4 |
6 |
8 |
6 |
| I |
4 |
6 |
14 |
7 |
| J |
3 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
| K |
2 |
4 |
6 |
4 |
Critical Path is having slack value 0
So, the critical path = B-C-E-F-H-J-K
Project completion time = 9+4+10+6+6+4+4= 43 days
The required project completion time of 40 cannot be achieved by the critical path
Variance of each activity
Variance of the project completion time
Standard deviation
Probability that the project will be completed within 40 days
Pr(t<=40)
Z=
From normal distribution table
Pr(t<=40)= 0.103= 10.38%
So, there is 10.38% chance that project will be completed by 40 days
b) Probability = 80%
Z value for 0.8 probability = 0.84
0.84= (40-X)/2.38
X= 38
It shows that the project has to be shortened to 38 weeks to achieve the goal of completion of 80% chance.
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