# Regression and Statistics Solved Paper Sample

QUESTION

Questions 1 – 3
The worksheet stock returns in the file Amazon_Data.xlsx contains data on monthly returns on Amazon.com stock (AMZN) and S&P500 index. The monthly returns are available for 229 months, from January 2000 to January 2019. The returns are simply proportional changes in the AMZN price and S&P index value, calculated at the market close at the end of each month. For example, a return of 4.0000 in a given month for AMZN indicates a 4% increase in the price of AMZN that month, which means that the new AMZN price is 1.04 times the closing price of the previous month. Similarly, a return of – 4.0000 indicates that the new AMZN price is 0.96 times the previous month price.

1. Consider an AMZN investor who bought AMZN stock at market open on January 1, 2000 and sold it at market close on the last trading day of January 2019. What is the most appropriate summary measure of the typical monthly return for this AMZN buy-and-hold strategy? Calculate that summary measure for this 229-month period.

A. 2.3039%
B. 1.3704%
C. 2.1516%
D. 1.7663 %

2. Using historical data on the monthly returns on AMZN as a representative sample of size n=229, how confident can you be that the monthly returns of AMZN are more likely to be positive than to be negative?

A. Less than 50% confident.
B. At least 50% confident but less than 68% confident.
C. At least 68% confident but less than 95% confident.
D. At least 95% confident but less than 98.5% confident.
E. At least 98.5% confident.

3. Find the beta for AMZN against S&P500 by running a regression with the AMZN return as the dependent variable and the S&P500 return as the independent variable. (Beta is just the slope coefficient in this regression.)

A. 0.259
B. 0.509
C. 1.667
D. 1.710
E. 11.891

Questions 4 – 6

The worksheet quarterlyrevenue in the file Amazon_Data.xlsx contains quarterly revenue data for Amazon.com (AMZN), starting from the first quarter in 2000 and up to the last quarter of 2018.

4. Run a regression with Quarterly Revenue as the dependent variable, and with time trend (Period Number) and the dummy variables representing Fiscal Quarter as the independent variables. What is the Standard Error of Regression for this regression? (Select the closest number from the choices below)

A. USD 1,445.475
B. USD 8,362.437
C. USD 8,756.599
D. USD 1,445,475,499
E. USD 8,362,437,233
F. USD 8,756,598,794

For Questions 5 and 6, run a simple regression with Quarterly Revenue as the dependent variable and with quarterly revenues from four quarters ago (i.e., same quarter from the previous year) as the independent variable.

5. Use this regression to provide a forecast for Amazon.com revenue for the first quarter of 2019.

A. USD 30.422 billion
B. USD 37,794 billion
C. USD 65.062 billion
D. USD 68,141 billion

6. Based on this regression, how confident can you be that Amazon.com revenues in the first quarter of 2019 will be at least \$67.0 billion?

A. Less than 1% confident
B. At least 1% confident but less than 25% confident
C. At least 25% confident but less than 50% confident
D. At least 50% confident but less than 75% confident
E. At least 75% confident but less than 99% confident
F. At least 99% confident

Amazon Data

 Date Year Month AMZN % return SP500 return 1/31/2000 2000 1 -15.1888 -5.0904 2/29/2000 2000 2 6.6796 -2.0108 3/31/2000 2000 3 -2.7223 9.6720 4/28/2000 2000 4 -17.6306 -3.0796 5/31/2000 2000 5 -12.4575 -2.1915 6/30/2000 2000 6 -24.8383 2.3934 7/31/2000 2000 7 -17.0396 -1.6341 8/31/2000 2000 8 37.7593 6.0699 9/29/2000 2000 9 -7.3795 -5.3483 10/31/2000 2000 10 -4.7154 -0.4949 11/30/2000 2000 11 -32.5939 -8.0069 12/29/2000 2000 12 -36.9620 0.4053 1/31/2001 2001 1 11.2450 3.4637 2/28/2001 2001 2 -41.1552 -9.2291 3/30/2001 2001 3 0.4172 -6.4205 4/30/2001 2001 4 54.2522 7.6814 5/31/2001 2001 5 5.7668 0.5090 6/29/2001 2001 6 -15.2187 -2.5004 7/31/2001 2001 7 -11.7314 -1.0772 8/31/2001 2001 8 -28.4227 -6.4108 9/28/2001 2001 9 -33.2215 -8.1723 10/31/2001 2001 10 16.9179 1.8099 11/30/2001 2001 11 62.1777 7.5176 12/31/2001 2001 12 -4.4170 0.7574 1/31/2002 2002 1 31.1460 -1.5574 2/28/2002 2002 2 -0.6342 -2.0766 3/28/2002 2002 3 1.4184 3.6739 4/30/2002 2002 4 16.7133 -6.1418 5/31/2002 2002 5 9.2271 -0.9081 6/28/2002 2002 6 -10.8612 -7.2455 7/31/2002 2002 7 -11.0215 -7.9004 8/30/2002 2002 8 3.3266 0.4881 9/30/2002 2002 9 6.6265 -11.0024 10/31/2002 2002 10 21.5317 8.6461 11/29/2002 2002 11 20.6095 5.7058 12/31/2002 2002 12 -19.1006 -6.0333 1/31/2003 2003 1 15.6697 -2.7415 2/28/2003 2003 2 0.7323 -1.7004 3/31/2003 2003 3 18.2644 0.8358 4/30/2003 2003 4 10.2190 8.1044 5/30/2003 2003 5 25.0959 5.0899 6/30/2003 2003 6 1.1981 1.1322 7/31/2003 2003 7 14.6476 1.6224 8/29/2003 2003 8 11.2392 1.7873 9/30/2003 2003 9 4.5553 -1.1944 10/31/2003 2003 10 12.3890 5.4961 11/28/2003 2003 11 -0.8451 0.7129 12/31/2003 2003 12 -2.5014 5.0765 1/30/2004 2004 1 -4.2189 1.7276 2/27/2004 2004 2 -14.6627 1.2209 3/31/2004 2004 3 0.6278 -1.6359 4/30/2004 2004 4 0.7394 -1.6791 5/28/2004 2004 5 11.2385 1.2083 6/30/2004 2004 6 12.1649 1.7989 7/30/2004 2004 7 -28.4559 -3.4291 8/31/2004 2004 8 -2.0041 0.2287 9/30/2004 2004 9 7.1316 0.9364 10/29/2004 2004 10 -16.4709 1.4014 11/30/2004 2004 11 16.2614 3.8595 12/31/2004 2004 12 11.6179 3.2458 1/31/2005 2005 1 -2.4159 -2.5290 2/28/2005 2005 2 -18.6025 1.8903 3/31/2005 2005 3 -2.5867 -1.9118 4/29/2005 2005 4 -5.5734 -2.0109 5/31/2005 2005 5 9.7342 2.9952 6/30/2005 2005 6 -6.8150 -0.0143 7/29/2005 2005 7 36.4461 3.5968 8/31/2005 2005 8 -5.4264 -1.1222 9/30/2005 2005 9 6.0890 0.6949 10/31/2005 2005 10 -12.0088 -1.7741 11/30/2005 2005 11 21.5755 3.5186 12/30/2005 2005 12 -2.7033 -0.0952 1/31/2006 2006 1 -4.9417 2.5467 2/28/2006 2006 2 -16.4659 0.0453 3/31/2006 2006 3 -2.4306 1.1065 4/28/2006 2006 4 -3.6135 1.2187 5/31/2006 2006 5 -1.7041 -3.0917 6/30/2006 2006 6 11.7596 0.0087 7/31/2006 2006 7 -30.4809 0.5086 8/31/2006 2006 8 14.6523 2.1274 9/29/2006 2006 9 4.1842 2.4566 10/31/2006 2006 10 18.5866 3.1508 11/30/2006 2006 11 5.9071 1.6467 12/29/2006 2006 12 -2.1815 1.2616 1/31/2007 2007 1 -4.5362 1.4059 2/28/2007 2007 2 3.9023 -2.1846 3/30/2007 2007 3 1.6607 0.9980 4/30/2007 2007 4 54.1342 4.3291 5/31/2007 2007 5 12.7344 3.2549 6/29/2007 2007 6 -1.0558 -1.7816 7/31/2007 2007 7 14.8078 -3.1982 8/31/2007 2007 8 1.7443 1.2864 9/28/2007 2007 9 16.5686 3.5794 10/31/2007 2007 10 -4.2941 1.4822 11/30/2007 2007 11 1.5816 -4.4043 12/31/2007 2007 12 2.2968 -0.8628 1/31/2008 2008 1 -16.1269 -6.1163 2/29/2008 2008 2 -17.0270 -3.4761 3/31/2008 2008 3 10.5941 -0.5960 4/30/2008 2008 4 10.2805 4.7547 5/30/2008 2008 5 3.8026 1.0674 6/30/2008 2008 6 -10.1568 -8.5962 7/31/2008 2008 7 4.1047 -0.9859 8/29/2008 2008 8 5.8554 1.2191 9/30/2008 2008 9 -9.9616 -9.0791 10/31/2008 2008 10 -21.3304 -16.9425 11/28/2008 2008 11 -25.4018 -7.4849 12/31/2008 2008 12 20.0937 0.7822 1/30/2009 2009 1 14.7036 -8.5657 2/27/2009 2009 2 10.1496 -10.9931 3/31/2009 2009 3 13.3508 8.5405 4/30/2009 2009 4 9.6405 9.3925 5/29/2009 2009 5 -3.1421 5.3081 6/30/2009 2009 6 7.2702 0.0196 7/31/2009 2009 7 2.5102 7.4142 8/31/2009 2009 8 -5.3288 3.3560 9/30/2009 2009 9 14.9895 3.5723 10/30/2009 2009 10 27.2601 -1.9762 11/30/2009 2009 11 14.3927 5.7364 12/31/2009 2009 12 -1.0227 1.7771 1/29/2010 2010 1 -6.7722 -3.6974 2/26/2010 2010 2 -5.5897 2.8514 3/31/2010 2010 3 14.6706 5.8796 4/30/2010 2010 4 0.9796 1.4759 5/28/2010 2010 5 -8.4902 -8.1976 6/30/2010 2010 6 -12.9125 -5.3882 7/30/2010 2010 7 7.8986 6.8778 8/31/2010 2010 8 5.8868 -4.7449 9/30/2010 2010 9 25.8191 8.7551 10/29/2010 2010 10 5.2018 3.6856 11/30/2010 2010 11 6.1551 -0.2290 12/31/2010 2010 12 2.6226 6.5300 1/31/2011 2011 1 -5.7556 2.2646 2/28/2011 2011 2 2.1516 3.1957 3/31/2011 2011 3 3.9471 -0.1047 4/29/2011 2011 4 8.7048 2.8495 5/31/2011 2011 5 0.4494 -1.3501 6/30/2011 2011 6 3.9656 -1.8258 7/29/2011 2011 7 8.8171 -2.1474 8/31/2011 2011 8 -3.2761 -5.6791 9/30/2011 2011 9 0.4646 -7.1762 10/31/2011 2011 10 -1.2579 10.7723 11/30/2011 2011 11 -9.9386 -0.5059 12/30/2011 2011 12 -9.9797 0.8533 1/31/2012 2012 1 12.3281 4.3583 2/29/2012 2012 2 -7.5859 4.0589 3/30/2012 2012 3 12.6996 3.1332 4/30/2012 2012 4 14.5129 -0.7497 5/31/2012 2012 5 -8.1889 -6.2651 6/29/2012 2012 6 7.2519 3.9555 7/31/2012 2012 7 2.1677 1.2598 8/31/2012 2012 8 6.4166 1.9763 9/28/2012 2012 9 2.4369 2.4236 10/31/2012 2012 10 -8.4252 -1.9791 11/30/2012 2012 11 8.2256 0.2848 12/31/2012 2012 12 -0.4682 0.7068 1/31/2013 2013 1 5.8317 5.0428 2/28/2013 2013 2 -0.4633 1.1061 3/28/2013 2013 3 0.8400 3.5988 4/30/2013 2013 4 -4.7582 1.8086 5/31/2013 2013 5 6.0636 2.0763 6/28/2013 2013 6 3.1538 -1.4999 7/31/2013 2013 7 8.4735 4.9462 8/30/2013 2013 8 -6.7193 -3.1298 9/30/2013 2013 9 11.2677 2.9749 10/31/2013 2013 10 16.4374 4.4596 11/29/2013 2013 11 8.1285 2.8049 12/31/2013 2013 12 1.3134 2.3563 1/31/2014 2014 1 -10.0554 -3.5583 2/28/2014 2014 2 0.9507 4.3117 3/31/2014 2014 3 -7.1072 0.6932 4/30/2014 2014 4 -9.5833 0.6201 5/30/2014 2014 5 2.7686 2.1030 6/30/2014 2014 6 3.9130 1.9058 7/31/2014 2014 7 -3.6301 -1.5080 8/29/2014 2014 8 8.3229 3.7655 9/30/2014 2014 9 -4.8962 -1.5514 10/31/2014 2014 10 -5.2661 2.3201 11/28/2014 2014 11 10.8623 2.4534 12/31/2014 2014 12 -8.3540 -0.4189 1/30/2015 2015 1 14.2355 -3.1041 2/27/2015 2015 2 7.2293 5.4893 3/31/2015 2015 3 -2.1202 -1.7396 4/30/2015 2015 4 13.3512 0.8521 5/29/2015 2015 5 1.7663 1.0491 6/30/2015 2015 6 1.1323 -2.1012 7/31/2015 2015 7 23.5113 1.9742 8/31/2015 2015 8 -4.3383 -6.2581 9/30/2015 2015 9 -0.1950 -2.6443 10/30/2015 2015 10 22.2724 8.2983 11/30/2015 2015 11 6.2151 0.0505 12/31/2015 2015 12 1.6682 -1.7530 1/29/2016 2016 1 -13.1515 -5.0735 2/29/2016 2016 2 -5.8739 -0.4128 3/31/2016 2016 3 7.4423 6.5991 4/29/2016 2016 4 11.1094 0.2699 5/31/2016 2016 5 9.5817 1.5329 6/30/2016 2016 6 -0.9920 0.0906 7/29/2016 2016 7 6.0353 3.5610 8/31/2016 2016 8 1.3640 -0.1219 9/30/2016 2016 9 8.8603 -0.1234 10/31/2016 2016 10 -5.6717 -1.9426 11/30/2016 2016 11 -4.9695 3.4174 12/30/2016 2016 12 -0.0933 1.8201 1/31/2017 2017 1 9.8164 1.7884 2/28/2017 2017 2 2.6182 3.7198 3/31/2017 2017 3 4.911 -0.0389 4/30/2017 2017 4 4.3371 0.9091 5/31/2017 2017 5 7.5276 1.1576 6/30/2017 2017 6 -2.6764 0.4814 7/31/2017 2017 7 2.0434 1.9349 8/31/2017 2017 8 -0.7269 0.0546 9/30/2017 2017 9 -1.9631 1.9303 10/31/2017 2017 10 14.9717 2.2188 11/30/2017 2017 11 6.4662 2.8083 12/31/2017 2017 12 -0.6187 0.9832 1/31/2018 2018 1 24.0639 5.6179 02/28/2018 2018 2 4.2429 -3.8947 03/31/2018 2018 3 -4.3049 -2.6885 04/30/2018 2018 4 8.2075 0.2719 05/31/2018 2018 5 4.0539 2.1608 06/30/2018 2018 6 4.3065 0.4842 07/31/2018 2018 7 4.5676 3.6022 08/31/2018 2018 8 13.2365 3.0263 09/30/2018 2018 9 -0.4824 0.4294 10/31/2018 2018 10 -20.2192 -6.9403 11/30/2018 2018 11 5.7672 1.7859 12/31/2018 2018 12 -11.1350 -9.1777 1/31/2019 2019 1 14.4317 7.8684

 Variable Descriptions Name Units Description Date MM/DD/YYYY This item denotes the last day of trading in a given month Year YYYY This item denotes year Month MM This item denotes month AMZN return Number This item denotes monthly return on AMZN in a given month SP500 return Number This item denotes monthly return on S&P500 index in a given month (Data obtained from Wharton Research Data Services (WRDS) – Compustat)

1.Consider an AMZN investor who bought AMZN stock at market open on January 1, 2000 and sold it at market close on the last trading day of January 2019. What is the most appropriate summary measure of the typical monthly return for this AMZN buy-and-hold strategy? Calculate that summary measure for this 229-month period.

A. 2.3039%

B. 1.3704%

C. 2.1516%

D. 1.7663 %

Ans. A. 2.3039%

The value of AMZN % return is -15.1888% in Jan 2000, and 14.4317% in Jan 2019. According to the buy-and-hold strategy, the investors invest their money in the stocks for a long term. Therefore, one of the most appropriate summary measures for the typical monthly return for the AMZN buy-and-hold strategy by the given investor should be the mean percentage return value of AMZN.

The average of the AMZN percentage return comes out to be 2.3039%.

2. Using historical data on the monthly returns on AMZN as a representative sample of size n=229,how confident can you be that the monthly returns of AMZN are more likely to be positive than to be negative?

A. Less than 50% confident.

B. At least 50% confident but less than 68% confident.

C. At least 68% confident but less than 95% confident.

D. At least 95% confident but less than 98.5% confident.

E. At least 98.5% confident.

Ans. E. At least 98.5% confident.

No of successes (positive AMZN return) = 135/229 = 0.58952.

No of negatives (negative AMZN return) = 94/229 = 0.41048

Null Hypothesis – The monthly returns of AMZN are equally likely to be positive and negative.

Alternate Hypothesis – The monthly returns of AMZN are more likely to positive than to be negative.

At 98.5% Confidence Interval, z = 2.24.

So, the standard error of the estimate = 2.24*[(0.58952*0.41048)/229] = 0.072816

Range of probability = [(0.58952 – 0.072816), (0.58952 + 0.072816)] = [0.516704,0.662335]

As it can be observed that even at 98.5% Confidence, the probability is greater than 0.5, which depicts that there is not an equal probability of positive and negative return.

3.Find the beta for AMZN against S&P500 by running a regression with the AMZN return as the dependent variable and the S&P500 return as the independent variable. (Beta is just the slope coefficient in this regression.)

A. 0.259

B. 0.509

C. 1.667

D. 1.710

E. 11.891

Ans. C. 1.667

The regression model has been with AMZN return as the dependent variable with S&P500 return as the independent variable.

It can be clearly seen the slope coefficient i.e. Beta for this model is 1.667.

4.Run a regression with Quarterly Revenue as the dependent variable, and with time trend (Period Number) and the dummy variables representing Fiscal Quarter as the independent variables. What is the Standard Error of Regression for this regression? (Select the closest number from choices below)A. USD 1,445.475

B. USD 8,362.437

C. USD 8,756.599

D. USD 1,445,475,499

E. USD 8,362,437,233

F. USD 8,756,598,794

Ans. E. USD 8,362,437,233

The regression model has been built with Quarterly Revenue as the dependent variable, while Period Number & Dummy variables for the Fiscal Quarter as the independent variables.

The standard error of regression comes out to be USD 8362.437 million.

All the values given in figure are in Millions USD.

5.Use this regression to provide a forecast for Amazon.com revenue for the first quarter of 2019.

A. USD 30.422 billion

B. USD 37,794 billion

C. USD 65.062 billion

D. USD 68,141 billion

Ans. C. USD 65.062 billion

In this regression model, the Quarterly Revenue has been kept as the dependent variable, and the quarterly revenues four quarters ago (i.e., same quarter from the previous year) has been taken as the independent variable.

Predicted Value for a quarter = 51.26936 + (1.273674 * Same Quarter of Previous Year Revenue)

The values are present here in Million USD.

6.Based on this regression, how confident can you be that Amazon.com revenues in the first quarter of 2019 will be at least \$67.0 billion?

A. Less than 1% confident

B. At least 1% confident but less than 25% confident

C. At least 25% confident but less than 50% confident

D. At least 50% confident but less than 75% confident

E. At least 75% confident but less than 99% confident

F. At least 99% confident

Ans. B. At least 1% confident but less than 25% confident

When the regression line was checked for 99% Confidence Interval, the slope of the variable i.e. Beta varied from 1.2392 to 1.308149. The values of upper and lower confidence interval at 99% are 67422.17 and 62702.11106 respectively. However, when these values were checked at 95% CI, those were 63284.5354 and 66839.75 respectively.

Hence, while telling that the Amazon.com revenues in the first quarter of 2019 would be at least \$67.0 billion, we would be at least 1% confident but less than 25% confident.

Regression Stock

 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.509296197389589 R Square 0.259382616675495 Adjusted R Square 0.256119985030894 Standard Error 11.8907356934092 Observations 229 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 1 11240.6202116634 11240.6202116634 79.5010423884945 1.62229157024757E-16 Residual 227 32095.4381400271 141.389595330516 Total 228 43336.0583516906 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 1.70980112228447 0.788582352529088 2.16819602518483 0.031183412005486 0.155923638410927 3.26367860615802 0.155923638410927 3.26367860615802 X Variable 1 1.66668842619251 0.18692526633145 8.91633570411608 1.62229157024718E-16 1.29835788774213 2.03501896464289 1.29835788774213 2.03501896464289

Stock Returns

 Date Year Month AMZN % return SP500 return 1/31/2000 2000 1 -15.1888 -5.0904 2/29/2000 2000 2 6.6796 -2.0108 3/31/2000 2000 3 -2.7223 9.6720 4/28/2000 2000 4 -17.6306 -3.0796 5/31/2000 2000 5 -12.4575 -2.1915 6/30/2000 2000 6 -24.8383 2.3934 7/31/2000 2000 7 -17.0396 -1.6341 8/31/2000 2000 8 37.7593 6.0699 9/29/2000 2000 9 -7.3795 -5.3483 10/31/2000 2000 10 -4.7154 -0.4949 11/30/2000 2000 11 -32.5939 -8.0069 12/29/2000 2000 12 -36.9620 0.4053 1/31/2001 2001 1 11.2450 3.4637 2/28/2001 2001 2 -41.1552 -9.2291 3/30/2001 2001 3 0.4172 -6.4205 4/30/2001 2001 4 54.2522 7.6814 5/31/2001 2001 5 5.7668 0.5090 6/29/2001 2001 6 -15.2187 -2.5004 7/31/2001 2001 7 -11.7314 -1.0772 8/31/2001 2001 8 -28.4227 -6.4108 9/28/2001 2001 9 -33.2215 -8.1723 10/31/2001 2001 10 16.9179 1.8099 11/30/2001 2001 11 62.1777 7.5176 12/31/2001 2001 12 -4.4170 0.7574 1/31/2002 2002 1 31.1460 -1.5574 2/28/2002 2002 2 -0.6342 -2.0766 3/28/2002 2002 3 1.4184 3.6739 4/30/2002 2002 4 16.7133 -6.1418 5/31/2002 2002 5 9.2271 -0.9081 6/28/2002 2002 6 -10.8612 -7.2455 7/31/2002 2002 7 -11.0215 -7.9004 8/30/2002 2002 8 3.3266 0.4881 9/30/2002 2002 9 6.6265 -11.0024 10/31/2002 2002 10 21.5317 8.6461 11/29/2002 2002 11 20.6095 5.7058 12/31/2002 2002 12 -19.1006 -6.0333 1/31/2003 2003 1 15.6697 -2.7415 2/28/2003 2003 2 0.7323 -1.7004 3/31/2003 2003 3 18.2644 0.8358 4/30/2003 2003 4 10.2190 8.1044 5/30/2003 2003 5 25.0959 5.0899 6/30/2003 2003 6 1.1981 1.1322 7/31/2003 2003 7 14.6476 1.6224 8/29/2003 2003 8 11.2392 1.7873 9/30/2003 2003 9 4.5553 -1.1944 10/31/2003 2003 10 12.3890 5.4961 11/28/2003 2003 11 -0.8451 0.7129 12/31/2003 2003 12 -2.5014 5.0765 1/30/2004 2004 1 -4.2189 1.7276 2/27/2004 2004 2 -14.6627 1.2209 3/31/2004 2004 3 0.6278 -1.6359 4/30/2004 2004 4 0.7394 -1.6791 5/28/2004 2004 5 11.2385 1.2083 6/30/2004 2004 6 12.1649 1.7989 7/30/2004 2004 7 -28.4559 -3.4291 8/31/2004 2004 8 -2.0041 0.2287 9/30/2004 2004 9 7.1316 0.9364 10/29/2004 2004 10 -16.4709 1.4014 11/30/2004 2004 11 16.2614 3.8595 12/31/2004 2004 12 11.6179 3.2458 1/31/2005 2005 1 -2.4159 -2.5290 2/28/2005 2005 2 -18.6025 1.8903 3/31/2005 2005 3 -2.5867 -1.9118 4/29/2005 2005 4 -5.5734 -2.0109 5/31/2005 2005 5 9.7342 2.9952 6/30/2005 2005 6 -6.8150 -0.0143 7/29/2005 2005 7 36.4461 3.5968 8/31/2005 2005 8 -5.4264 -1.1222 9/30/2005 2005 9 6.0890 0.6949 10/31/2005 2005 10 -12.0088 -1.7741 11/30/2005 2005 11 21.5755 3.5186 12/30/2005 2005 12 -2.7033 -0.0952 1/31/2006 2006 1 -4.9417 2.5467 2/28/2006 2006 2 -16.4659 0.0453 3/31/2006 2006 3 -2.4306 1.1065 4/28/2006 2006 4 -3.6135 1.2187 5/31/2006 2006 5 -1.7041 -3.0917 6/30/2006 2006 6 11.7596 0.0087 7/31/2006 2006 7 -30.4809 0.5086 8/31/2006 2006 8 14.6523 2.1274 9/29/2006 2006 9 4.1842 2.4566 10/31/2006 2006 10 18.5866 3.1508 11/30/2006 2006 11 5.9071 1.6467 12/29/2006 2006 12 -2.1815 1.2616 1/31/2007 2007 1 -4.5362 1.4059 2/28/2007 2007 2 3.9023 -2.1846 3/30/2007 2007 3 1.6607 0.9980 4/30/2007 2007 4 54.1342 4.3291 5/31/2007 2007 5 12.7344 3.2549 6/29/2007 2007 6 -1.0558 -1.7816 7/31/2007 2007 7 14.8078 -3.1982 8/31/2007 2007 8 1.7443 1.2864 9/28/2007 2007 9 16.5686 3.5794 10/31/2007 2007 10 -4.2941 1.4822 11/30/2007 2007 11 1.5816 -4.4043 12/31/2007 2007 12 2.2968 -0.8628 1/31/2008 2008 1 -16.1269 -6.1163 2/29/2008 2008 2 -17.0270 -3.4761 3/31/2008 2008 3 10.5941 -0.5960 4/30/2008 2008 4 10.2805 4.7547 5/30/2008 2008 5 3.8026 1.0674 6/30/2008 2008 6 -10.1568 -8.5962 7/31/2008 2008 7 4.1047 -0.9859 8/29/2008 2008 8 5.8554 1.2191 9/30/2008 2008 9 -9.9616 -9.0791 10/31/2008 2008 10 -21.3304 -16.9425 11/28/2008 2008 11 -25.4018 -7.4849 12/31/2008 2008 12 20.0937 0.7822 1/30/2009 2009 1 14.7036 -8.5657 2/27/2009 2009 2 10.1496 -10.9931 3/31/2009 2009 3 13.3508 8.5405 4/30/2009 2009 4 9.6405 9.3925 5/29/2009 2009 5 -3.1421 5.3081 6/30/2009 2009 6 7.2702 0.0196 7/31/2009 2009 7 2.5102 7.4142 8/31/2009 2009 8 -5.3288 3.3560 9/30/2009 2009 9 14.9895 3.5723 10/30/2009 2009 10 27.2601 -1.9762 11/30/2009 2009 11 14.3927 5.7364 12/31/2009 2009 12 -1.0227 1.7771 1/29/2010 2010 1 -6.7722 -3.6974 2/26/2010 2010 2 -5.5897 2.8514 3/31/2010 2010 3 14.6706 5.8796 4/30/2010 2010 4 0.9796 1.4759 5/28/2010 2010 5 -8.4902 -8.1976 6/30/2010 2010 6 -12.9125 -5.3882 7/30/2010 2010 7 7.8986 6.8778 8/31/2010 2010 8 5.8868 -4.7449 9/30/2010 2010 9 25.8191 8.7551 10/29/2010 2010 10 5.2018 3.6856 11/30/2010 2010 11 6.1551 -0.2290 12/31/2010 2010 12 2.6226 6.5300 1/31/2011 2011 1 -5.7556 2.2646 2/28/2011 2011 2 2.1516 3.1957 3/31/2011 2011 3 3.9471 -0.1047 4/29/2011 2011 4 8.7048 2.8495 5/31/2011 2011 5 0.4494 -1.3501 6/30/2011 2011 6 3.9656 -1.8258 7/29/2011 2011 7 8.8171 -2.1474 8/31/2011 2011 8 -3.2761 -5.6791 9/30/2011 2011 9 0.4646 -7.1762 10/31/2011 2011 10 -1.2579 10.7723 11/30/2011 2011 11 -9.9386 -0.5059 12/30/2011 2011 12 -9.9797 0.8533 1/31/2012 2012 1 12.3281 4.3583 2/29/2012 2012 2 -7.5859 4.0589 3/30/2012 2012 3 12.6996 3.1332 4/30/2012 2012 4 14.5129 -0.7497 5/31/2012 2012 5 -8.1889 -6.2651 6/29/2012 2012 6 7.2519 3.9555 7/31/2012 2012 7 2.1677 1.2598 8/31/2012 2012 8 6.4166 1.9763 9/28/2012 2012 9 2.4369 2.4236 10/31/2012 2012 10 -8.4252 -1.9791 11/30/2012 2012 11 8.2256 0.2848 12/31/2012 2012 12 -0.4682 0.7068 1/31/2013 2013 1 5.8317 5.0428 2/28/2013 2013 2 -0.4633 1.1061 3/28/2013 2013 3 0.8400 3.5988 4/30/2013 2013 4 -4.7582 1.8086 5/31/2013 2013 5 6.0636 2.0763 6/28/2013 2013 6 3.1538 -1.4999 7/31/2013 2013 7 8.4735 4.9462 8/30/2013 2013 8 -6.7193 -3.1298 9/30/2013 2013 9 11.2677 2.9749 10/31/2013 2013 10 16.4374 4.4596 11/29/2013 2013 11 8.1285 2.8049 12/31/2013 2013 12 1.3134 2.3563 1/31/2014 2014 1 -10.0554 -3.5583 2/28/2014 2014 2 0.9507 4.3117 3/31/2014 2014 3 -7.1072 0.6932 4/30/2014 2014 4 -9.5833 0.6201 5/30/2014 2014 5 2.7686 2.1030 6/30/2014 2014 6 3.9130 1.9058 7/31/2014 2014 7 -3.6301 -1.5080 8/29/2014 2014 8 8.3229 3.7655 9/30/2014 2014 9 -4.8962 -1.5514 10/31/2014 2014 10 -5.2661 2.3201 11/28/2014 2014 11 10.8623 2.4534 12/31/2014 2014 12 -8.3540 -0.4189 1/30/2015 2015 1 14.2355 -3.1041 2/27/2015 2015 2 7.2293 5.4893 3/31/2015 2015 3 -2.1202 -1.7396 4/30/2015 2015 4 13.3512 0.8521 5/29/2015 2015 5 1.7663 1.0491 6/30/2015 2015 6 1.1323 -2.1012 7/31/2015 2015 7 23.5113 1.9742 8/31/2015 2015 8 -4.3383 -6.2581 9/30/2015 2015 9 -0.1950 -2.6443 10/30/2015 2015 10 22.2724 8.2983 11/30/2015 2015 11 6.2151 0.0505 12/31/2015 2015 12 1.6682 -1.7530 1/29/2016 2016 1 -13.1515 -5.0735 2/29/2016 2016 2 -5.8739 -0.4128 3/31/2016 2016 3 7.4423 6.5991 4/29/2016 2016 4 11.1094 0.2699 5/31/2016 2016 5 9.5817 1.5329 6/30/2016 2016 6 -0.9920 0.0906 7/29/2016 2016 7 6.0353 3.5610 8/31/2016 2016 8 1.3640 -0.1219 9/30/2016 2016 9 8.8603 -0.1234 10/31/2016 2016 10 -5.6717 -1.9426 11/30/2016 2016 11 -4.9695 3.4174 12/30/2016 2016 12 -0.0933 1.8201 1/31/2017 2017 1 9.8164 1.7884 2/28/2017 2017 2 2.6182 3.7198 3/31/2017 2017 3 4.911 -0.0389 4/30/2017 2017 4 4.3371 0.9091 5/31/2017 2017 5 7.5276 1.1576 6/30/2017 2017 6 -2.6764 0.4814 7/31/2017 2017 7 2.0434 1.9349 8/31/2017 2017 8 -0.7269 0.0546 9/30/2017 2017 9 -1.9631 1.9303 10/31/2017 2017 10 14.9717 2.2188 11/30/2017 2017 11 6.4662 2.8083 12/31/2017 2017 12 -0.6187 0.9832 1/31/2018 2018 1 24.0639 5.6179 02/28/2018 2018 2 4.2429 -3.8947 03/31/2018 2018 3 -4.3049 -2.6885 04/30/2018 2018 4 8.2075 0.2719 05/31/2018 2018 5 4.0539 2.1608 06/30/2018 2018 6 4.3065 0.4842 07/31/2018 2018 7 4.5676 3.6022 08/31/2018 2018 8 13.2365 3.0263 09/30/2018 2018 9 -0.4824 0.4294 10/31/2018 2018 10 -20.2192 -6.9403 11/30/2018 2018 11 5.7672 1.7859 12/31/2018 2018 12 -11.1350 -9.1777 1/31/2019 2019 1 14.4317 7.8684

 Variable Descriptions Name Units Description Date MM/DD/YYYY This item denotes the last day of trading in a given month Year YYYY This item denotes year Month MM This item denotes month AMZN return Number This item denotes monthly return on AMZN in a given month SP500 return Number This item denotes monthly return on S&P500 index in a given month (Data obtained from Wharton Research Data Services (WRDS) – Compustat)

Quarterly Revenue

 Date Fiscal Year Fiscal Quarter Period Number Quarterly Revenue 03/31/2000 2000 1 1 573.889 06/30/2000 2000 2 2 577.876 09/30/2000 2000 3 3 637.858 12/31/2000 2000 4 4 972.36 03/31/2001 2001 1 5 700.356 06/30/2001 2001 2 6 667.625 09/30/2001 2001 3 7 639.281 12/31/2001 2001 4 8 1115.171 03/31/2002 2002 1 9 847.422 06/30/2002 2002 2 10 805.605 09/30/2002 2002 3 11 851.299 12/31/2002 2002 4 12 1428.61 03/31/2003 2003 1 13 1083.559 06/30/2003 2003 2 14 1099.912 09/30/2003 2003 3 15 1134.456 12/31/2003 2003 4 16 1945.772 03/31/2004 2004 1 17 1530.349 06/30/2004 2004 2 18 1387.341 09/30/2004 2004 3 19 1462.475 12/31/2004 2004 4 20 2540.959 03/31/2005 2005 1 21 1902 06/30/2005 2005 2 22 1753 09/30/2005 2005 3 23 1858 12/31/2005 2005 4 24 2977 03/31/2006 2006 1 25 2279 06/30/2006 2006 2 26 2139 09/30/2006 2006 3 27 2307 12/31/2006 2006 4 28 3986 03/31/2007 2007 1 29 3015 06/30/2007 2007 2 30 2886 09/30/2007 2007 3 31 3262 12/31/2007 2007 4 32 5672 03/31/2008 2008 1 33 4135 06/30/2008 2008 2 34 4063 09/30/2008 2008 3 35 4265 12/31/2008 2008 4 36 6703 03/31/2009 2009 1 37 4889 06/30/2009 2009 2 38 4652 09/30/2009 2009 3 39 5448 12/31/2009 2009 4 40 9520 03/31/2010 2010 1 41 7131 06/30/2010 2010 2 42 6566 09/30/2010 2010 3 43 7560 12/31/2010 2010 4 44 12947 03/31/2011 2011 1 45 9857 06/30/2011 2011 2 46 9913 09/30/2011 2011 3 47 10876 12/31/2011 2011 4 48 17431 03/31/2012 2012 1 49 13185 06/30/2012 2012 2 50 12834 09/30/2012 2012 3 51 13806 12/31/2012 2012 4 52 21268 03/31/2013 2013 1 53 16070 06/30/2013 2013 2 54 15700 09/30/2013 2013 3 55 17092 12/31/2013 2013 4 56 25587 03/31/2014 2014 1 57 19741 06/30/2014 2014 2 58 19340 09/30/2014 2014 3 59 20579 12/31/2014 2014 4 60 29328 03/31/2015 2015 1 61 22717 06/30/2015 2015 2 62 23185 09/30/2015 2015 3 63 25358 12/31/2015 2015 4 64 35747 03/31/2016 2016 1 65 29128 06/30/2016 2016 2 66 30404 09/30/2016 2016 3 67 32714 12/31/2016 2016 4 68 43741 3/31/2017 2017 1 69 35714 6/30/2017 2017 2 70 37955 9/30/2017 2017 3 71 43744 12/31/2017 2017 4 72 60453 3/31/2018 2018 1 73 51042 6/30/2018 2018 2 74 52886 9/30/2018 2018 3 75 56576 12/31/2018 2018 4 76 72383

 Variable Descriptions Name Units Description Date Date Fiscal quarter closing date Fiscal Year Number (YYYY) This item represents the fiscal year of the current fiscal year-end month. Fiscal Quarter Roman Numeral Current quarter (I, II, III, or IV) Period Number Number This item identifies quarters in the data set in the ascending order. Quarterly Revenue Millions of US dollars This item represents quarterly Sales/Turnover (Net) plus Operating Revenues. (Data obtained from Wharton Research Data Services (WRDS) – Compustat)

Dummy

 Fiscal Year Fiscal Quarter Period Number Dummy_Quarter 1 Dummy_Quarter 2 Dummy_Quarter 3 Dummy_Quarter 4 Quarterly Revenue 2000 1 1 1 0 0 0 573.889 2000 2 2 0 1 0 0 577.876 2000 3 3 0 0 1 0 637.858 2000 4 4 0 0 0 1 972.36 2001 1 5 1 0 0 0 700.356 2001 2 6 0 1 0 0 667.625 2001 3 7 0 0 1 0 639.281 2001 4 8 0 0 0 1 1115.171 2002 1 9 1 0 0 0 847.422 2002 2 10 0 1 0 0 805.605 2002 3 11 0 0 1 0 851.299 2002 4 12 0 0 0 1 1428.61 2003 1 13 1 0 0 0 1083.559 2003 2 14 0 1 0 0 1099.912 2003 3 15 0 0 1 0 1134.456 2003 4 16 0 0 0 1 1945.772 2004 1 17 1 0 0 0 1530.349 2004 2 18 0 1 0 0 1387.341 2004 3 19 0 0 1 0 1462.475 2004 4 20 0 0 0 1 2540.959 2005 1 21 1 0 0 0 1902 2005 2 22 0 1 0 0 1753 2005 3 23 0 0 1 0 1858 2005 4 24 0 0 0 1 2977 2006 1 25 1 0 0 0 2279 2006 2 26 0 1 0 0 2139 2006 3 27 0 0 1 0 2307 2006 4 28 0 0 0 1 3986 2007 1 29 1 0 0 0 3015 2007 2 30 0 1 0 0 2886 2007 3 31 0 0 1 0 3262 2007 4 32 0 0 0 1 5672 2008 1 33 1 0 0 0 4135 2008 2 34 0 1 0 0 4063 2008 3 35 0 0 1 0 4265 2008 4 36 0 0 0 1 6703 2009 1 37 1 0 0 0 4889 2009 2 38 0 1 0 0 4652 2009 3 39 0 0 1 0 5448 2009 4 40 0 0 0 1 9520 2010 1 41 1 0 0 0 7131 2010 2 42 0 1 0 0 6566 2010 3 43 0 0 1 0 7560 2010 4 44 0 0 0 1 12947 2011 1 45 1 0 0 0 9857 2011 2 46 0 1 0 0 9913 2011 3 47 0 0 1 0 10876 2011 4 48 0 0 0 1 17431 2012 1 49 1 0 0 0 13185 2012 2 50 0 1 0 0 12834 2012 3 51 0 0 1 0 13806 2012 4 52 0 0 0 1 21268 2013 1 53 1 0 0 0 16070 2013 2 54 0 1 0 0 15700 2013 3 55 0 0 1 0 17092 2013 4 56 0 0 0 1 25587 2014 1 57 1 0 0 0 19741 2014 2 58 0 1 0 0 19340 2014 3 59 0 0 1 0 20579 2014 4 60 0 0 0 1 29328 2015 1 61 1 0 0 0 22717 2015 2 62 0 1 0 0 23185 2015 3 63 0 0 1 0 25358 2015 4 64 0 0 0 1 35747 2016 1 65 1 0 0 0 29128 2016 2 66 0 1 0 0 30404 2016 3 67 0 0 1 0 32714 2016 4 68 0 0 0 1 43741 2017 1 69 1 0 0 0 35714 2017 2 70 0 1 0 0 37955 2017 3 71 0 0 1 0 43744 2017 4 72 0 0 0 1 60453 2018 1 73 1 0 0 0 51042 2018 2 74 0 1 0 0 52886 2018 3 75 0 0 1 0 56576 2018 4 76 0 0 0 1 72383

 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.873073370739425 R Square 0.762257110694301 Adjusted R Square 0.73477863805736 Standard Error 8362.43723306973 Observations 76 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 5 15919082694.7166 3183816538.94333 56.9104874359727 2.60663960093854E-23 Residual 71 4965055309.8692 69930356.4770309 Total 76 20884138004.5858 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept -12109.4611788377 2510.9461157477 -4.8226686757202 7.82347402892733E-06 -17116.1455333506 -7102.77682432487 -17116.1455333506 -7102.77682432487 X Variable 1 648.108588048246 43.7829939739406 14.8027471221816 2.14741365706783E-23 560.807777589482 735.40939850701 560.807777589482 735.40939850701 X Variable 2 0 0 65535 #NUM! 0 0 0 0 X Variable 3 -475.804166995609 2713.48615364779 -0.175347925161135 #NUM! -5886.34188680255 4934.73355281133 -5886.34188680255 4934.73355281133 X Variable 4 0.087771271934094 2714.54562638432 3.23336882169126E-05 0.999974292126615 -5412.56247717143 5412.7380197153 -5412.56247717143 5412.7380197153 X Variable 5 4908.58460427632 2716.31049597222 1.80707787697866 0.074986811553147 -507.584694176949 10324.7539027296 -507.584694176949 10324.7539027296

Sheet 5

 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.996362640940462 R Square 0.992738512261852 Adjusted R Square 0.992634776722736 Standard Error 1445.47549907657 Observations 72 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 1 19995338992.2251 19995338992.2251 9569.89784521116 1.30399158702332E-76 Residual 70 146257959.290146 2089399.41843066 Total 71 20141596951.5152 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 99.0% Upper 99.0% Intercept 51.2693636888016 226.725653970228 0.226129521697328 0.821759668086777 -400.920694780013 503.459422157616 -549.078543781968 651.617271159572 X Variable 1 1.2736741040695 0.013019810643585 97.8258546868422 1.30399158702332E-76 1.2477069105337 1.2996412976053 1.23919888726599 1.30814932087301
 Lower 99% CI Upper 99% CI 62702.1110600485 67422.1749071598 Lower 95% Upper 95% 63284.5354326811 66839.7505345272

Quarter

 Quarterly Revenue Independent variable 573.889 577.876 637.858 972.36 700.356 573.889 667.625 577.876 639.281 637.858 1115.171 972.36 847.422 700.356 805.605 667.625 851.299 639.281 1428.61 1115.171 1083.559 847.422 1099.912 805.605 1134.456 851.299 1945.772 1428.61 1530.349 1083.559 1387.341 1099.912 1462.475 1134.456 2540.959 1945.772 1902 1530.349 1753 1387.341 1858 1462.475 2977 2540.959 2279 1902 2139 1753 2307 1858 3986 2977 3015 2279 2886 2139 3262 2307 5672 3986 4135 3015 4063 2886 4265 3262 6703 5672 4889 4135 4652 4063 5448 4265 9520 6703 7131 4889 6566 4652 7560 5448 12947 9520 9857 7131 9913 6566 10876 7560 17431 12947 13185 9857 12834 9913 13806 10876 21268 17431 16070 13185 15700 12834 17092 13806 25587 21268 19741 16070 19340 15700 20579 17092 29328 25587 22717 19741 23185 19340 25358 20579 35747 29328 29128 22717 30404 23185 32714 25358 43741 35747 35714 29128 37955 30404 43744 32714 60453 43741 51042 35714 52886 37955 56576 43744 72383 60453 51042 52886 56576 72383
 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.996362640940462 Required Value 65062.1429836041 R Square 0.992738512261852 Adjusted R Square 0.992634776722736 Standard Error 1445.47549907657 Observations 72 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 1 19995338992.2251 19995338992.2251 9569.89784521116 1.30399158702332E-76 Residual 70 146257959.290146 2089399.41843066 Total 71 20141596951.5152 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 51.2693636888016 226.725653970228 0.226129521697328 0.821759668086777 -400.920694780013 503.459422157616 -400.920694780013 503.459422157616 X Variable 1 1.2736741040695 0.013019810643585 97.8258546868422 1.30399158702332E-76 1.2477069105337 1.2996412976053 1.2477069105337 1.2996412976053

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